Province 2 promises the most exciting electoral race in the upcoming federal and provincial elections scheduled for November 26 and December 7.
While just a couple or three parties are in race in other provinces, three national parties and two Madhes-based ones are all in contention in Province 2. CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) have already forged a left alliance while Nepali Congress (NC) is making efforts to ally with the Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN) and Ratsriya Janata Party Nepal (RJP). The latter two have almost finalized a Madhes-based alliance.
Setopati has analyzed the votes received by all the parties at the ward level in the province from Saptari to Parsa in the recent local election. An alliance of NC, FSFN and RJP—that had individually received the largest number of votes in a descending order—has become a necessity as UML and Maoist Center have already formed the left alliance.
The three parties can win as many as 26 of the 32 federal constituencies in the province if they ally, but the left alliance looks likely to win as many as 22 if the three parties were to contest the elections separately.
The eight districts in the province all have four constituencies each. We have analyzed the probable results in the eight districts if the alliance materializes and also if it does not.
Saptari
NC and the left alliance will share the four constituencies if FSFN and RJP were to contest separately. NC will be stronger in 1, 3 and 4 and the left alliance in the other constituency. If FSFN allies with RJP, the alliance will be stronger in three constituencies. And if NC also allies with the alliance of FSFN and RJP, the three-party alliance will have such a big lead that the left alliance will lose all four constituencies in all likelihood.
Siraha
FSFN and RJP are very weak in Siraha. An alliance between just the two parties, therefore, does not have much significance. The left alliance is the strongest and RJP the weakest.
There is a high chance of the left alliance sweeping all four constituencies if NC does not ally with FSFN and RJP. But a three-party alliance including NC, based on the votes received at the ward level in the local election, will be stronger than the left alliance in 1, 2 and 3, and the left alliance will win only the fourth constituency.
Dhanusha
NC and the left alliance are stronger in two constituencies each with the former stronger in 3 and 4, and the left alliance in the first two.
But an alliance of FSFN and RJP will be stronger than both NC and the left alliance in all four constituencies. The left alliance will not even come in competition in three constituencies if NC were to ally with FSFN and RJP.
Mahottari
The left alliance is stronger in three of the four constituencies and NC in Mahottari-2 after unification with Nepal Democratic Forum (NDF). But an alliance of FSFN and RJP will be stronger than both NC and the left alliance in 2, 3 and 4. If NC were to ally with FSFN and RJP, the three-party alliance will be stronger in all four constituencies. The alliance will be stronger than the left alliance even in the constituency of Maoist leader Giri Raj Mani Pokharel by a slender margin.
Sarlahi
The left alliance is stronger in 1, 3 and 4 as per the votes received at the local level and RJP is the strongest party in Sarlahi-2 by itself. An alliance of RJP and FSFN also will not be enough to beat the left alliance in the other three constituencies. But their alliance with NC can give the three-party alliance Sarlahi-4 as well, with the left alliance taking 1 and 3.
Rautahat
The left alliance will be stronger in all four constituencies in the district of Maoist leader Prabhu Sah if an alliance of NC, FSFN and RJP does not materialize, as an alliance of FSFN and RJP alone will not be able to beat the left alliance.
The left alliance will be stronger in 3 and 4, and the three-party alliance in 1. The number of votes NDF leader and former lawmaker Mushtaq Alam, who recently joined UML, will take to the left alliance will be decisive in Rautahat-2.
Bara
The left alliance is stronger in all four constituencies but an alliance of FSFN and RJP will be stronger in Bara-2. A three-party alliance of NC, RJP and FSFN will, however, be stronger than the left alliance in all four constituencies.
Parsa
NC is stronger in 2 and 3, FSFN in 1 and the left alliance in 4. An alliance of FSFN and RJP will be strong even in Parsa-2. A three-party alliance of NC, RJP and FSFN will be stronger than the left alliance in all four constituencies.
A three-party alliance of NC, FSFN and RJP—in this way, will have a big say in election results. The left alliance will benefit massively in Province 2 if the three-party alliance does not materialize. It will be strong in 22 of the 32 constituencies in the province if the three parties were to contest separately. NC will be stronger in eight and RJP and FSFN in one each.
The left alliance will be stronger in 18 constituencies, the Madhes-based alliance in 12 if RJP and FSFN were to ally. NC will be the biggest loser in that eventuality as it will be stronger in just two constituencies.
But NC's alliance with FSFN and RJP will make the three-party alliance stronger in a whopping 26 constituencies with the left alliance limited to just six.
