Nepali Congress (NC) and CPN-UML had equally shared the six constituencies of Bara in the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2013. The two parties also won the majority of local bodies in the district in the recent local election with NC winning Kalaiya Sub Metropolitan City, and UML Jitpur-Simara Sub Metropolitan City.
The district will have four constituencies in the upcoming parliamentary elections and the two parties have the largest vote tally in two constituencies each if we look at the votes received by the parties at the ward level in each constituency.
But NC is ahead of UML in all the constituencies if we add the votes received by Nepal Democratic Forum (NDF) that has unified with NC. NC, however, is not in a position to compete with the left alliance of UML and CPN (Maoist Center). But if NC manages to ally with the alliance of Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN) and Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJP), the left alliance will find it difficult to win any of the constituency.
NC is the largest party based on the votes received at the ward level in the constituency that includes Baragadhi, and Simraungadh municipalities and other local bodies. NC had received 20,071 votes followed by UML at 18,072, Maoist Center 8,273, FSFN 6,883, and RJP 6,256.
The votes received by the two parties in left alliance add up to 26,345 and that of FSFN and RJP to 13,139. But that of an NC-FSFN-RJP alliance, if it materializes, will add up to 33,210.
NC is the single largest party even in this constituency, that includes Kolhavi municipality, Subarna rural municipality and other local bodies, having secured 14,506 votes at the ward level in the recent local election. FSFN was second with 12,742 votes, followed by Maoist Center at 10,356, UML 9,459, RJP 8,742 and NDF 933.
The votes of UML and Maoist Center add up to 19,815, and that of FSFN and RJP to 21,484. The Madhes-based alliance is already stronger than the left alliance and the total rises up to 36,923 if the votes of NC and NDF are added to that. The left alliance will have no chance to even compete if NC were to ally with FSFN and RJP.
The constituency includes eight wards of Jitpur-Simara sub metropolis, 26 wards of Kalaiya sub metropolis and other local bodies. UML had received the largest number of votes at the ward level in the local units here at 14,710, followed closely by NC at 14,460. Maoist Center was third at 10,202, followed by FSFN at 8,982, RJP 3,701 and NDF, that has merged with NC, 1,052.
The votes of left alliance add up to 24,992, and that of RJP and FSFN to 12,683. But the votes of the Madhes-based alliance, and the NC, that merged with NDF, will add up to 28,193 placing the alliance, if it is formed, over 3,000 votes ahead of the left alliance.
The constituency includes 16 wards of Jitpur-Simara sub metropolis, Bishrampur rural municipality and other local bodies. UML had received the largest number of votes at the ward level in the local units here at 13,515, followed by NC at 12,586, Maoist Center 10,890, RJP 9,428, FSFN 4,687, and NDF, that has merged with NC, 3,470.
The votes of left alliance add up to 24,405, and that of RJP and FSFN to 14,115. But the votes of the Madhes-based alliance, and the NC, that merged with NDF, will add up to 30,171 placing the alliance, if it is formed, over 5,500 votes ahead of the left alliance.