Challenging for PM Deuba to win in his home district this time

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Prime Minister and President of Nepali Congress Sher Bahadur Deuba is one of the few influential leaders who has won almost all the elections from the year 2048 BS from his home district, Dadeldhura. In all these elections, Deuba not only won from his home district but also left many rival contenders far behind him. 

Deuba, who won five elections of the parliament and the constituent assembly, has been elected PM for four times. 

While analyzing the latest local level election results, the UML-Maoist alliance recently formed for the upcoming federal and provincial elections shows a probability of breaking his legacy. 

Deuba had garnered 23,920 votes in the constituent assembly election held on November 2013 while his closest contender of CPN (Maoist Center) Khagraj Bhatta had received 12,493 votes. Similarly, UML’s Tara Prasad Joshi had secured 7190 votes. Deuba had garnered more votes than the aggregate votes acquired by both major parties’ rival contestants in that election. 

However, the results of the local level election held this time reveal NC weaker in the district. NC emerged victorious in only four local units of Dadeldhura of the total seven units whereas UML in two and CPN (Maoist Center) in one local unit. 

NC still seems to be in the front if the numbers of chiefs of municipalities and rural municipalities are counted. But the reason for NC’s weaker performance in the local level election would be apparent if the votes secured by all elected ward representatives are observed. 

Dadeldhura district's municipalities and rural municipalities has a total of 52 wards. Among them, UML won in 19 wards while NC's victories were restricted in only 17 wards. Remaining 16 wards were secured by CPN (Maoist Center).

However, a look at the votes received by the 52 ward chairpersons show that the combined total votes received by the ward chairpersons of UML and Maoist is more than the total received by the NC ward chairpersons. 

NC ward chairpersons have received 18,306 votes while CPN ward chairpersons secured 15,617 and CPN (Maoist Center) secured 11,730 votes. This means when the Nepali Congress secured 18,000 total votes, UML and CPN (Maoist Center) have garnered more than 27,000 votes. 

The estimates show that contending alone means that Nepali Congress would not meet the adequate votes to win this time from Dadeldhura. The party has to draw around 5,000 votes from the UML and Maoist that had won in the local election. 

CPN-UML and CPN (Maoist Center) limited themselves to total 19,600 votes in the constituency assembly election of 2013. However, these parties have garnered 27,000 total votes in the local election. 

It also does not mean that the results of federal and provincial elections will surely follow the pattern of the local election outcome. The personality of the candidate helps a lot to secure votes. More than this, it will be challenging to defeat the Prime Minister of the country and the president of the largest party in his own home district. But the results of the local election and electoral alliance forged between UML and Maoist, and the announcement of their merger after the elections have made this challenge not so impossible.

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