Baburam Bhattarai's supporter: Who has developed Gorkha as much as Bhattarai has?
Narayan Kaji Shrestha's supporter: Who has visited as many parties as Bhattarai has? Naya Shakti, Federal Socialist Forum Nepal (FSFN), left alliance and now Nepali Congress (NC)!
Bhattarai's supporter: Gorkha and whole Nepal will be developed if Bhattarai wins!
Shrestha's supporter: The left alliance will get majority. Development will happen only if Shrestha wins.
Such exchange we heard between women in Khahare of Gorkha can be heard at every nook and corner of Gorkha-2. Bhattarai is contesting on a Naya Shakti ticket and Shrestha on a Maoist one from the constituency.
The voters of Gorkha-2 face a challenging task of choosing one between Bhattarai and Shrestha. Politically aware citizens from across the country are also curious about who the voters in Gorkha-2 will choose. We travelled 200 kilometers in Gorkha-2 and talked to around 200 voters to try to find that out.
"Vehicles are running all the time. Everyone is claiming he will win," Rachana Khadka, who has a cosmetic store by the roadside seven kilometers down toward Khaireni from Gorkha district headquarters, said. "I don't know who I should vote for," Khadka, 27, added.
Maoist Center candidate has been elected ward chairman in her ward. She was a bit hesitant at the beginning but later revealed that she will vote for Bhattarai. "Peopl may make all the arguments but nobody has done as much for this district as Bhattarai has. I will give one vote to Bhattarai no matter what my family says," she revealed her decision.
Gyanu Aryal, 28, of Gorkha-12, where NC has won ward chairman, similarly has decided to vote for Shrestha. "I participated in Bhattarai's campaign the last time. We have devoted our life to the Maoist party. We made many enemies merely for joining the party. We fought with NC men here. He has now suddenly left the party," she fumed. "I can't vote for Bhattarai who has been supported by NC."
We talked with voters at Palungtar, Thantipokhari, Harmi, Khoplang, Dumredanda, Aanp Pipal, Luintel, Khatritar, Gaikhur, Banchare, Abuwa, Syauli, Laxmi Bazar, 12 Kilo, Chorkate, Mosahar, Khahare, Bhaluswara, 10 Kilo Bazar, Naya Basti, Gorkha Bazar and Kumal Basti. Eighty-nine of the 200 voters we talked to said they will vote for Bhattarai in the federal election, 62 said they will vote for Shrestha and 49 are undecided.
Seven of these undecided 49 had voted for the Maoists in the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election. Ten of these undecided 49 have already decided to vote for NC in proportional representation (PR) system but they have yet to decide who to vote for in the first past the post (FPTP) system. This chunk of voters undecided until now will decide who will win Gorkha-2.
The left alliance of CPN-UML and Maoist Center has a slender lead of 1,176 over that of NC and Naya Shakti based on the votes received at the ward level in the recent local election. But the gap has been closed further by the decision of RPP, that had received 630 votes, to support Bhattarai.
Bhattarai will also have to attract votes from Maoist Center and UML, apart from keeping the NC votes, to win. Getting NC votes is challenging as a few NC families victimized by the Maoists during the conflict period are not supporting Bhattarai. But they did not say they will vote for Shrestha either. Bhattarai will be harmed if they leave the FPTP ballot empty and vote for NC in PR system.
"Twenty including a few teachers were killed in Gorkha-2. The victims' families have even issued a statement announcing they will not vote for Bhattarai. The wound of conflict period has yet to heal," Bhagwat Regmi, we spoke to at Chhepetar, said. "But the majority of NC voters will still vote for Bhattarai."
Shrestha, on the other hand, has the challenge of competing with the pro-development image of Bhattarai in Gorkha. He can win by retaining all the left votes. But all the left voters will not necessarily vote for him. Three out of the voters, who had voted for the Maoists earlier, said they will vote for Bhattarai this time. Similarly, seven who had voted for the Maoists earlier have yet to decide who to vote for in FPTP system.
Jagat Kumal was repairing his house destroyed by the earthquake in 2015 when we reached Chorkate of Siranchowk. He said it is easy to bring construction materials now to rebuild his house after Bhattarai built a bridge over Daraundi river when he was finance minister. "There can sometimes be misunderstandings among friends due to working style. He may have left the Maoist party as a result," Kumal stated. "We are Maoists but Bhattarai built the bridge over Daraundi here. The road has been constructed now. I will, therefore, vote for him."
We also found two voters who said they will vote for Bibeksheel Sajha Party in PR system. But they said they will vote for Bhattarai in FPTP system. Four UML voters also said they will vote for Bhattarai in FPTP system and their own party in PR system.
But none of the voters who had voted for Naya Shakti in the recent local election said they will vote for Shrestha. This clearly shows Bhattarai's personality and the work he has done in the district.
Many voters said they do not know or have not met Shrestha even though he also hails from Gorkha. "We have not seen Narayan Kaji. He became deputy prime minister. He joined the Maoist party such a long time ago. But he didn't come to Gorkha," Bishnu Thapa, we met at Biruwatar, said. "But there is no room to say Bhattarai did not do anything for Gorkha."
Not a single voter say Shrestha is a bad candidate. Almost all the voters we talked to said he is a good human being and praised his character. "Narayan Kaji is a good man. There is no reason to not vote for him. He is a senior Maoist leader. He has honesty and integrity," Surya Bahadur Basel of Khoplang said. "He can work. He could not pay attention toward Gorkha as he contested from elsewhere earlier. He is now working hard," he added.
The biggest strength of Shrestha is the organization of Maoist party and strong support of UML. Many UML cadres of Gorkha consider him to be the architect of the left alliance and are trying their best to get him elected. “It is as if we have gathered for our kul pooja (clan rituals). We come from the same ancestors. The siblings separated. We have now come together for the election that is like a ritual. We are communists. It will not be difficult to vote for sickle and hammer,” Kos Bilas Kalakheti, a UML cadre of Palungtar-8, said.
Shrestha also looks likely to get a few NC votes from his home village of Siranchowk. Juna Adhikari of Siranchowk-4 said she will vote for Shrestha despite being an NC supporter. "We are related to Shrestha from my parent's side. We can tell him if we need some help," she said smilingly. "We can use the power if needed."
We found three more voters who said they will vote for Shrestha in FPTP system and NC in PR system like Adhikari.
Ram Kaji Adhikari of Palungtar-8 said many were disenchanted with local Maoist leaders and voted for NC in the local election and claimed that such voters will again vote for Maoist Center. "Those who were unhappy with ticket distribution during the local election have also made up. Many will vote for Shrestha as they look at the candidate. Many, who had joined Naya Shakti, have also returned back to the Maoist party here." he stated.
Hit Raj Pandey had contested on a Maoist ticket in the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in the constituency where Shrestha is contesting now. We found that voters were angry with Pandey. "Hit Raj did not do anything," Maoist voters accused. "He didn't even come to visit after the earthquake."
We could not go to Barpak. The recent local election shows that Maoist Center is strong in Barpak that falls in Gorkha-2. We estimate that we would have found more voters who would vote for Shrestha than Bhattarai if we had gone there.
The local election shows how close a competition it will be in Gorkha-2. How many votes the candidates can attract due to their personal influence will ultimately decide who will win the constituency.
Bhattarai looks more likely to attract such personal votes due to his development record in the district and acquaintance with the locals. But the voters may also take Bhattarai as a big leader of a small party. He can win if the voters were to vote not for future potential but to reward him for the past work.
But he will not find it easy if the feeling of who can bring development in the future becomes stronger.
The victory margin will almost certainly be wafer-thin no matter who ultimately wins.
