Many kings, princes and warriors came to Janakpur as suitors for Sita's swayamvar (the process of choosing groom by the bride herself), during the Treta Yuga, according to the Ramayan, a Hindu epic.
Sita's father, King Janak of Janakpur, had put a condition that the mighty who strings the Shiva bow will get to marry Sita. Sita, who had fancied prince Ram, was anxious fearing whether Ram would be able to string the bow even as other suitors were failing to even move the bow.
Voters in Jankapur, the land where Sita was born, are similarly anxious about who to choose out of the two 'lions' in the contest from the federal constituency of Dhanusha-3—Bimalendra Nidhi of Nepali Congress (NC) and Rajendra Mahato of Rastriya Janata Party Nepal (RJP)--that constitutes most of Janakpur Sub-metropolitan city and some surrounding areas.
A poster of Mahato of equal size accompanies every poster of Nidhi while television commercials (TVC) of both the candidates blare together in the local television channels.
"Lions are fighting here. No Madhesi is as influential in NC as Nidhi while Mahato is a leading figure of RJP and Madhes movement," Ashok Karna of Janakpur-10 said. "Both the men are needed in the parliament but sadly one of them will lose."
Musafi Thakur, 47, of Janakpur-7 who operates a small rice and flour mill is also in a dilemma like Karna. "Nidhi is a future prime minister. Mahato is also in the chairman council of RJP," he stated. But he has made up his mind nonetheless. "I had voted for RJP in the recent local election. But Mahato is an outsider. We don't know whether he will return here for the next election or not. I will, therefore, support Nidhi," he reasoned.
NC leaders and cadres are trying their best to spread the fact that Mahato is an outsider. TVCs in the local channels present Nidhi as a son of Janakpur. Nidhi is fighting with an agenda of localism and development.
Mahato's TVCs, on the other hand, depict him as the leader of the Madhes movement. RJP's leaders and cadres are trying equally hard to refute the label of outsider. "This accusation of an outsider is just and election slogan. A Nepali citizen can contest from any federal constituency in the country. Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal has contested from Kathmandu, Siraha and Chitwan but has never been called an outsider," they argue.
The stature of both the leaders and the feeling that they both are necessary in national politics have put the voters in a dilemma. Not just the voters in Dhanusha but people across the country are curiously looking at the constituency. The contests between Baburam Bhattarai and Narayan Kaji Shrestha in Gorkha-2, and between Nidhi and Mahato in Dhanusha-3 are the most curiously watched across the country.
Four of us reporters from Setopati talked with almost 250 voters of the constituency as we combed the city and villages for two days. 101 out of the 237 voters that we talked to said they will vote for NC in the federal election. Eighty-four of them said they have been voting for NC from the beginning. Apart from the traditional NC voters, seven, who had voted for independent candidates or other parties in the recent local election, also said they will vote for Nidhi. Similarly, 10 voters who had voted for RJP in the local election also said they will vote for Nidhi this time. This shows Nidhi also has personal influence in the constituency.
The influence of RJP is no lesser in Janakpur. RJP mayoral candidate for Janakpur Lal Kishore Sah had defeated NC candidate by a big margin in the local election. Eighty-five of the 237 voters we talked to said they will vote for RJP. Sixty-two of them had voted for RJP even in the local election. Twelve voters, who had voted for NC, in the second Constituent Assembly (CA) election in 2013, also said they will vote for RJP this time. Eleven voters who had voted for CPN-UML in the local election said they will vote for RJP this time. But we rarely found voters who had voted for NC in the local election and will vote for RJP this time.
UML does not have a candidate in Dhanusha-3. Ram Singh Yadav of CPN (Maoist Center) is contesting from the left alliance. The left alliance will come third in Dhanusha-3. We found just 25 voters, six of whom had voted for the Maoist Center in the local election, who said they will vote for the left alliance.
We came across 26 undecided voters during our two-day survey.
Nidhi, in this way, seems a little stronger than Mahato. But there are a few important factors that can potentially decide the final result and all the dimensions of these factors have yet to come to the fore.
UML vote of Dhanusha-3 is one of the important factors. The local election shows that even the sum of votes received by RJP and Federal Socialist Federation Nepal (FSFN) at the ward level cannot match the votes of NC. RJP and NC compete in Janakpur but RJP is weak outside Janakpur Sub-metropolis. NC and UML compete there. NC is strong in Dhanusha-3 precisely because it is strong both in the city and villages.
NC can be in problem if the rural votes of UML come together with the urban ones of RJP. Local UML leaders and cadres we talked to ruled that out and pledged to vote for the left alliance candidate. But we found a large group of UML supporters who have already decided to vote for Mahato to defeat Nidhi.
This is more evident in villages. RJP seems to have improved in rural areas outside Janakpur than the local election. We have found that RJP has improved in the areas where UML had received more votes in the local election. But it is not clear whether the decision to vote for Mahato to defeat Nidhi has been taken at the level of voters or UML leaders and cadres have decided that.
Budhan Yadav of Mukhiyapatti Musaharniya 5 said he will vote for RJP this time. "I voted for UML at the local level. Now, I will vote for RJP," he said. "I will vote for a candidate who will win. We should not waste our votes," he reasoned. UML had won in Mukhiyapatti rural municipality in the local election. He, however, will vote for UML in the proportional representation (PR) system.
Chandra Mandal of Dhanauji-3, like him, also will vote for UML in PR system and RJP in the first past the post (FPTP) system. "My heart says so and I will do accordingly," was all Mandal said when asked why he has decided so.
But many cadres of the left alliance claimed they will vote for alliance candidate Yadav. "We follow our ideologies. We don't follow the crowd," a Maoist Center cadre with Bhatta surname from Janakpur-24 said.
Another important factor apart from UML votes is how Nidhi and Mahato can tackle the division of votes along the lines of development and identity.
"NC could not do anything in Madhes," Kaushila Kumari of Janakpur-16 said. "I used to vote for NC earlier. But it suppressed the Madhes movement, killed the sons of Madhes. I am, therefore, canvassing for RJP keeping my husband in the shop."
We found many voters like her who criticize NC for its role in the Madhes movement and say they will vote for RJP due to the agenda of identity.
"There was such a big struggle for the rights of Madhesis. People from here were martyred, injured and are now living with disabilities. It is now time to choose a leader who can fulfill their dreams," Arun Jha of Dhanauji-2 said. He pointed at the incident in Rajbiraj during the Mechi-Mahakali campaign of UML and accused Nidhi of ordering to shoot Madhesi people as the home minister.
Those who back NC leaving RJP have a different argument. "Why did Mahato leave his constituency? Why did he come here?" Jitendra Yadav asked. "Nobody apart from Nidhi can work here, develop the place."
"Nidhi brought the roads to village and developed it," Rampreet Sah said pointing toward the black-topped road in front of his hardware store.
Allauddin, who works as a tailor adjoining Sah's hardware store, claimed that there has been no development in Nidhi's political career of 25 years. "There is no hospital here. The municipality office is in a rented building. Black-topping of a few kilometers of road alone does not suffice," he argued.
Nidhi is strong in Nagarain municipality of the constituency. It is his ancestral village. "This place got roads and saw development when Nidhi was physical planning minister," Lutan Jha, 55, of Nagarain-5 said. "How can we not vote the honest boy? He can even become a prime minister if he wins. We had elected even his father," he added.
If the votes of Nagarain come together for Nidhi, he may be in a position to win. The divisions seen in NC during the local election have also disappeared now.
Caste votes also play an important role in Madhes. There were rebel NC candidates in the majority of wards in the local election due to the caste divisions, but NC seems united now.
NC's Suresh Jha had contested as an independent candidate in Janakpur-4. RJP won there as a result with Jha coming third behind NC's Santosh Kumar Sah who Brahmin Jhas did not like.
NC's mayoral candidate in Janakpur was Manoj Kumar Sah Sudi from the dalit community. Suresh Jha had filed rebel candidacy as the mayoral candidate backed Santosh Sah in the ward. "There are 2,500 Brahmin votes in our ward. NC did not receive the votes in the local election as the candidate was a dalit. NC will get the votes this time," Jha's son Sujit claimed.
While the Madhesi Brahmin votes look likely to go to NC, the sentiment of dalit youths is in favor of RJP. "My mother will vote for NC even this time like she has always done," Shiva Khatwe Mandal of Janakpur-16, Kapileshwore said. "But I will vote for RJP."
Dhanusha-3 includes 17 wards of Janakpur, whole of Nagarain municipality, Mukhiyapatti Musaharniya and Dhanauji rural municipalities, and a ward of Videha municipality.
Sanjay Sah (Takla) of Sadbhawana had won the second CA election in 2013 from the constituency that included most of these areas. Sah is in jail now and many believe that the 'Takala' factor will prove decisive this time.
Takala was with Mahato in the past but he seems to support NC now. Vehicles with banner reading 'Come Sanjay, Save Janakpur' can be seen making rounds of Janakpur. Similarly, other vehicles carry a banner reading 'Rajendra Mahato changes colors and is an infiltrator'. Takala has an influence in the Sah and Sahu communities here and can influence the election even from his prison cell.
"Sanjay will be released only if Nidhi wins. He will remain inside the jail otherwise," Shatrughan Sah, a vegetable seller from Janakpur-24, said. "We will have to support Nidhi if he helps," he added.
Bhushan Kumar Sah of Janakpur-11 also attributed development of Janakpur to Sanjay Sah. "All the developments around us are due to Sanjay. We will, therefore, vote for whoever Sanjay asks us to," he stated.
Madhes sentiment, dynastic politics, votes of UML, caste factor and Takala factor are some of the factors that can affect the election result here.
Money is another factor in an area with rampant poverty and lack of education, according to locals. "I was given Rs 20,000 to arrange for votes during the local election. It is very difficult to buy votes. I could not bring Hindus, Muslims and dalits together. Some said the money was too little while others said something else," a Muslim voter of Janakpur-20, who was carrying a small daughter, said. "I threw the money and asked them to share among themselves."
The power of money in elections in Madhes is not new. "We have to mobilize youths. I asked for around Rs 25,000. But I was given just Rs 7,000. I cannot manage. Election can be won only if one has money," Nadim, who we found at Mukhiyapatti Musaharniya, said.
So, who will string the Shiva's bow in Dhanusha-3 taking all these factors into account?
Nidhi seems stronger until now. UML can change that by voting for Mahato.
